Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports:

Another week with no sunspots. As of February 13, it’s been 3 weeks since any sunspots were observed — on January 30. February 7 – 13 saw average daily solar flux decline from 71.1 to 70.4. Geomagnetic indices were lower, with average daily planetary A index declining from 11.6 to 8.1, and average mid-latitude A index going from 8 to 6.1. Lower geomagnetic activity is generally good for HF propagation.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70 on February 14 – 20; 72 on February 21 – 25; 71 on February 26 – March 9; 70 and 71 on March 10 – 11; 72 on March 12 – 24, and 71 on March 25 – 30.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on February 14 – 15; 5 on February 16 – 18; 12, 20, 12, and 8 on February 19 – 22; 5 on February 23 – 26; 12, 15, 15, and 10 on February 27 – March 2; 5 on March 3 – 4; 8, 5, 8, 10, 8, and 5 on March 5 – 10; 8 on March 11 – 12; 5 on March 13 – 17; 12, 20, 12, and 8 on March 18 – 21; 5 on March 22 – 25; 12 on March 26; 15 on March 27 – 28, and 10 and 5 on March 29 – 30.

The prediction of solar flux always at 70 or higher over the next 45 days is a positive sign for HF propagation, plus the spring equinox returns on March 20, indicating gradually improving HF propagation.
Sunspot numbers for February 7 through 13, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 70.2, 71.8, 70.3, 70, 69.9, 70.2, and 70.4, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 9, 10, 6, 9, 6, and 13, with a mean of 8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 7, 6, 4, 7, 5, and 11, with a mean of 6.1.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read ”What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out K9LA’s Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. Monthly charts offer propagation projections between the US and a dozen DX locations.

ARRL News Letter on Feb 14, 2019